Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana
Kugler.
Headlines via Reuters:
My policy rate expectation is consistent with March FOMC meeting
policymaker projectionsIf disinflation and
labor market conditions proceed as i am currently expecting, then
some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriateExpect
disinflationary trend to continuePolicy is currently
restrictive, and my baseline expectation is that disinflation will
continue without a broad economic slowdownSuch an outcome is
not assuredInflation progress
has sometimes been bumpyAnnual core PCE at
2.8% represents ‘considerable progress’ but is still ‘meaningfully
above’ Fed’s 2% targetData on new tenant
rent agreements suggest that housing inflation broadly will continue
to coolContinued
disinflation will indeed require further progress in housing and
non-housing servicesLabor market has
moved into better balanceSuspect strong
population growth ‘helps resolve the puzzle’ of labor market growth
and strong consumption even as inflation easesImportant that wage
growth be consistent with 2% inflation over time; US is moving back
toward that kind of wage growthAnchored inflation
expectations are evident in consumer and business surveysExpect consumption
growth to slow some this yearConsumer spending
was soft in January and February, suggesting we are on track for
lower consumption growth in q1 vs second half of 2023Expect GDP growth
this year to be solid but slower than 2023 pace of 3.1%My baseline
expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without
a significant rise in unemploymentAppears supply
networks are adapting to port of Baltimore disruption
Bolding above is mine. ‘Meaningfully above’ doesn’t sound to me like we get a rate cut in two months. But, I’ve been like a broken record on this (kids, ask an oldie what being a broken record means).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.