US Dollar (USD)
Rangebound with opposing drivers: Fed cuts argue for weakness, strong US equities attract inflows.
Likely stays contained in near term, with weakness emerging later in Q4.
Euro (EUR)
Lack of investment appeal so far; equities and rates underperformed US.
German stimulus and Fed cuts vs ECB pause could support EUR/USD.
Risks both ways, but skew is mildly positive.
Japanese Yen (JPY)
RBC maintains bullish call; USD/JPY expected below 140 by year-end.
Recent weakness blamed on July-specific factors (elections, tariffs, carry).
Rate differentials moving in JPY’s favor, BOJ steady, Fed easing.
Sterling (GBP)
Undervalued vs EUR, SEK, CHF; GBP/CHF has strongest short-term upside.
BoE cautious on cuts; one more cut expected this year.
Attractive for carry, especially vs CHF; limited US tariff exposure helps.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
Weakness delayed as SNB cautious on negative rates.
Inflation weak but edging up; tariffs from US a big risk (39% on exports).
Vulnerable to bouts of weakness near term.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
USD/CAD stuck in 1.3550–1.3900 range; RBC keeps 1.38 Q3 target.
Rallies above 1.38 seen as selling opportunities.
Only big Fed or BoC surprises could break the range.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
Forecasts revised higher; AUD/USD to 0.64 end-2025.
Supported by USD weakness, easing US-China trade tensions, and firm commodity prices.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Underperforming; forecast revised to 0.58 end-2025.
Weak economy and rising unemployment weigh, despite high rates.
Agriculture sector benefits from weaker currency.
This article was written by Arno V Venter at investinglive.com.